Steam Wishlist to Sales Estimator
Enter your wishlists, price and launch discount. The estimator shows first-week copies and what reaches you after tax and Steam's cut, at your ratio and at four others.
First week, at your ratio
1,050 copies
≈ $5,617 to you after tax and Steam’s cut
| Ratio | Copies | Net to you |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 350 | $1,872 |
| 0.10 | 700 | $3,745 |
| 0.20 | 1,400 | $7,490 |
| 0.30 | 2,100 | $11,234 |
Where the ratio comes from
Simon Carless of GameDiscoverCo has written for years about the ratio between wishlists at launch and first-week sales. Many games land between 0.1 and 0.2, and outliers sit far on both sides. Treat 0.15 as a planning number, not a promise.
Genre, price, early reviews and the quality of your wishlists all move the ratio. Wishlists from a festival or a viral post tend to convert worse than wishlists from people who followed the game for months.
What the money figure includes
The net figure removes your launch discount, about 15% for sales tax and Steam's 30% cut. Refunds, regional pricing and income tax are not included. Use the revenue calculator for a detailed split.
When to use it
Deciding when to launch
Check whether your current wishlists cover your costs, or whether one more festival or demo is worth the delay.
Setting a wishlist goal
Work backwards from the money you need to the wishlists you should reach before the release date.
Testing a launch discount
See whether a 10% or 20% launch discount brings enough extra copies to make up for the lower price.
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Questions
There is no fixed number. Multiply your wishlists by 0.1 and by your net price per copy. If that first week can't cover your costs, plan more marketing before launch.
Yes. Steam emails wishlisters when the game launches and when it goes on sale, so wishlists keep turning into sales during discounts.
Figures shared by indie developers often fall between 0.1 and 0.3 first-week sales per wishlist, with wide swings by genre and price. That is why the tool shows several ratios.
Wishlists gained close to launch tend to convert better than old ones, because players still remember the game. Very old wishlists often go cold.